Worth Knowing

3.1%

Twelve-month rise in wages and salaries for private industry workers. Union workers: 4.3 percent. Nonunion workers: 3.0 percent.

Employers' wage costs rose 3.1 percent over the year, and that is the budget your raise comes out of

The Employment Cost Index is the Bureau of Labor Statistics measure of what employers pay for labor. It holds the mix of occupations and industries fixed, so a national shift toward better paid work does not show up as a raise. For the twelve months ending September 2026, wages and salaries for private industry workers rose 3.1 percent, total compensation rose 3.4 percent, and benefit costs rose 3.9 percent. Within private industry, union workers' wages rose 4.3 percent against 3.0 percent for nonunion workers. A year earlier, for the twelve months ending September 2025, private industry compensation had risen 3.5 percent.

What this means. This is the pool your merit increase is drawn from, so treat 3 to 3.5 percent as the middle of the road rather than a generous outcome, and say so plainly if you are offered less. Benefit costs are climbing faster than wages, which means part of what your employer spends on you never reaches your paycheck, so ask what the whole package costs before judging an offer on salary alone. Note what the index deliberately does not measure: because it holds the job mix constant, it tells you what employers pay for the same work, not what you would earn by moving into different work. If you want more than 3 percent, the lever is usually a change in scope, title or employer, not a better conversation about merit.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Cost Index, September 2026, released October 30, 2026. Twelve-month changes are not seasonally adjusted. The index holds the mix of occupations and industries fixed, so it measures the cost of the same work over time rather than what individual workers earn as they move between jobs. Source

Quarterly. Refreshes early 2027

+5.3pts

Share of consumers saying jobs are plentiful minus the share saying jobs are hard to get, October 2026. September: plus 2.9.

People say jobs got a little easier to find last month, and still expect fewer jobs ahead

Every month The Conference Board asks a sample of U.S. households how they see business and job conditions. The labor market differential is the share who say jobs are plentiful minus the share who say jobs are hard to get. In October it improved by 2.4 percentage points to plus 5.3, as 26.7 percent said jobs were plentiful, up from 24.3 percent in September, while 21.4 percent said jobs were hard to get, unchanged. Asked about six months ahead, households stayed negative: 26.3 percent expected fewer jobs to be available and 15.2 percent expected more, a net reading of minus 11.1 percent.

What this means. This measures mood rather than openings, and the split in the mood is what matters to your timing. People feel slightly better about finding work now, which tends to show up as more applicants per posting, so plan for competition rather than a quiet field. Meanwhile more than one in four expect fewer jobs six months out, and that kind of pessimism is what makes a manager slow-walk a role that is already approved. If you have a live conversation, ask for a decision date instead of letting it drift into the holidays, and keep a second and third option warm while you wait.

The Conference Board, Consumer Confidence Survey, October 2026, released October 27, 2026. The overall Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.7 (1985 equals 100). These are household perceptions of job availability, not counts of job openings or hires. Source

Monthly. Refreshes late November 2026

33pts

Net share of small employers using AI who expect to add staff within a year. Employers not using AI: 15 points.

The small employers using AI are the ones expecting to hire more, not fewer

Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York analyzed the artificial intelligence questions in the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey, which covered 5,248 firms with at least one employee. Forty-six percent said their business or their employees were using AI tools. Among those users the net share expecting employment to rise over the next twelve months was 33 percentage points, against 15 points among firms not using AI, and the gap held at 10 points once the authors controlled for each firm's own past employment changes. Seventy-seven percent of respondents said AI use had not changed their labor costs.

What this means. The assumption that a company adopting AI is a company about to shrink does not hold here, so do not write off an employer because it talks about automation. In smaller firms the tools look more like a sign the business is investing, and a reasonable interview question is what the tools have taken off the team's plate and what the team took on instead. Hold the caveat alongside it: these are owners' expectations recorded in late 2025, not hiring they have since done, and small firms do not behave like large ones. Read it as a counterweight to the automation story rather than a forecast.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, "AI Adoption and Employment Expectations: Evidence from a Survey of Small Business Owners," by Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar, published October 8, 2026. Based on the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey, fielded September through November 2025. These are stated expectations of small business owners, not employment outcomes, and the survey was fielded roughly a year before the analysis was published. Source

Durable finding, from a survey fielded in late 2025

42.5%

Share of recent college graduates in jobs that do not require a degree. Their unemployment rate: 5.2 percent.

Recent graduates are finding work faster, and more of that work sits below the degree

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York tracks the labor market for recent college graduates using Census Bureau survey data and updates it every quarter. For the third quarter of 2026 the bank reported that conditions improved but remained challenging. The unemployment rate for recent graduates fell to 5.2 percent, its lowest level in more than a year, while the underemployment rate ticked up to 42.5 percent. Underemployment counts graduates working in jobs that do not typically require a college degree, which is why the two numbers can move in opposite directions: more graduates are working, and a larger share of that work sits below the degree.

What this means. Early in a career, getting hired and getting hired at your level are two different problems, and the second is now the harder one. A first job below the degree is common enough to carry no stigma, but it does not advance on its own, so treat it as a base to move from inside 18 months rather than a start. Name the specific work you want to be doing next and take on pieces of it where you already are. Employers hiring at this level are not short of applicants, so what moves you up is evidence of the work itself, or a referral from someone already doing it.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates, 2026:Q3 quarterly highlights, read November 2, 2026. The page is updated quarterly, generally in February, May, August and November, and carries no separate release date. Figures are derived from Census Bureau survey data. Source

Quarterly. Refreshes February 2027

31%

Share of chief executives who expect to reduce their workforce. The share expecting to expand it: 33 percent.

Chief executives are now almost as likely to be planning cuts as hiring

Each quarter The Conference Board surveys chief executives of large U.S. companies, in collaboration with The Business Council. In the fourth quarter of 2026, 33 percent said they expected to expand their workforce, down from 34 percent in the third quarter, while 31 percent expected to reduce it, up from 28 percent. Another 36 percent expected no change. The overall confidence measure fell to 46 from 52, where any reading below 50 means more negative answers than positive ones, and 41 percent of these CEOs expected economic conditions to worsen over the next six months, up from 19 percent a quarter earlier.

What this means. When the people who sign off on headcount are this evenly split between adding and cutting, an approved requisition is worth far more to you than a warm conversation. Ask early whether a role is budgeted and posted or still being discussed, because the ones still being discussed are the first to disappear when a quarter turns. The same survey found 61 percent of these CEOs expect no real trouble filling roles over the next 12 months, which tells you the hiring side feels no urgency. Expect longer processes and more interview rounds rather than fast offers, and keep more than one conversation alive.

The Conference Board, Measure of CEO Confidence in collaboration with The Business Council, Fourth Quarter 2026, released October 15, 2026. Based on 131 participating chief executives surveyed September 21 through October 5, 2026. These are stated expectations from a small sample of large-company CEOs, not hiring decisions already made. Source

Quarterly. Refreshes January 2027

27.1%

Share of the unemployed out of work 27 weeks or more. Payrolls grew 29,000 in September.

More than one in four unemployed people have been searching longer than six months

The Bureau of Labor Statistics counts anyone jobless for 27 weeks or more, just over six months, as long-term unemployed. In September that group was 1.9 million people, or 27.1 percent of the 7.1 million unemployed. The same release put September payroll growth at 29,000 and revised the two previous months down: July from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, and August from 162,000 to 133,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent.

What this means. If your search has passed the six-month mark, you are part of a large group, not an outlier. A steady unemployment rate alongside very slow hiring describes a market where few people are being let go and few are being hired. Elapsed time is the expected cost of that market, not a verdict on you. What you can change is how many people know you are looking, because when hiring is this slow, openings tend to go to someone who was referred by a person already inside.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation, September 2026 (USDL-26-1549), released October 2, 2026. Source

Refreshes November 6, 2026

5 of 12

Federal Reserve districts where some firms cut staff through attrition, delayed hiring, or expect fewer new jobs after investing in AI.

In five of the Fed's twelve districts, employers say AI is letting them hire less

The Beige Book is the Federal Reserve's roundup of what businesses in its 12 regional districts are reporting, published eight times a year. In the October 2026 edition, five districts said some firms had reduced staffing through attrition, delayed hiring, or expected to create fewer jobs after raising productivity by investing in AI. Most districts reported little or no net change in overall employment, and shortages persisted for specialized, technical and skilled trade workers.

What this means. The first place AI shows up in hiring is usually not a layoff. It is the opening that never gets posted because a departing employee is not replaced. That means fewer listed roles, and more of the real opportunity sits in jobs being redesigned inside companies. In conversations, ask which roles a team is rebuilding around new tools, and be ready to show how you get more done with them, not just that you have tried them.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Beige Book, October 2026, released October 14, 2026, based on information collected on or before October 5, 2026. The Beige Book reports what business contacts describe. It is not a statistical survey. Source

Refreshes with the next Beige Book