Worth Knowing

31%

Share of chief executives who expect to reduce their workforce. The share expecting to expand it: 33 percent.

Chief executives are now almost as likely to be planning cuts as hiring

Each quarter The Conference Board surveys chief executives of large U.S. companies, in collaboration with The Business Council. In the fourth quarter of 2026, 33 percent said they expected to expand their workforce, down from 34 percent in the third quarter, while 31 percent expected to reduce it, up from 28 percent. Another 36 percent expected no change. The overall confidence measure fell to 46 from 52, where any reading below 50 means more negative answers than positive ones, and 41 percent of these CEOs expected economic conditions to worsen over the next six months, up from 19 percent a quarter earlier.

What this means. When the people who sign off on headcount are this evenly split between adding and cutting, an approved requisition is worth far more to you than a warm conversation. Ask early whether a role is budgeted and posted or still being discussed, because the ones still being discussed are the first to disappear when a quarter turns. The same survey found 61 percent of these CEOs expect no real trouble filling roles over the next 12 months, which tells you the hiring side feels no urgency. Expect longer processes and more interview rounds rather than fast offers, and keep more than one conversation alive.

The Conference Board, Measure of CEO Confidence in collaboration with The Business Council, Fourth Quarter 2026, released October 15, 2026. Based on 131 participating chief executives surveyed September 21 through October 5, 2026. These are stated expectations from a small sample of large-company CEOs, not hiring decisions already made. Source

Quarterly. Refreshes January 2027

1,232

Median weekly earnings for full-time workers. For those with a bachelor's degree or higher: $1,752.

Half of all full-time workers earn more than $1,232 a week, and half earn less

Each quarter the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes median usual weekly earnings for full-time wage and salary workers, drawn from the same survey that produces the unemployment rate. Median means the midpoint: of the nation's 122.2 million full-time workers, half earned more than $1,232 a week in the third quarter of 2026 and half earned less. That was 1.5 percent above a year earlier, against a 3.5 percent rise in consumer prices over the same four quarters. Among workers age 25 and over, the midpoint was $1,752 for those holding at least a bachelor's degree and $1,932 for those with an advanced degree.

What this means. This is the number to measure yourself against before you name a figure, because it is what people in full-time work are actually paid rather than a range a salary site inferred from job postings. The release breaks the midpoint down by education, age, sex and race, so you can find the comparison closest to your own situation. Note that the midpoint rose 1.5 percent while prices rose 3.5 percent, which means the typical full-time worker lost ground this year. If you are told that a raise of 2 or 3 percent is generous, that is the context you are negotiating in.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Usual Weekly Earnings of Wage and Salary Workers, Third Quarter 2026 (USDL-26-1604), released October 21, 2026. Figures are medians for full-time wage and salary workers, not seasonally adjusted. Source

Quarterly. Refreshes January 2027

4.1

Median years workers have been with their current employer, January 2026. Two years earlier: 3.9 years.

People are staying in their jobs longer than they were two years ago

Every two years the Bureau of Labor Statistics asks workers how long they have been with their current employer. In January 2026 the median was 4.1 years, up from 3.9 years in January 2024, and the share of workers who had been in their job 12 months or less fell to 20.6 percent from 22.2 percent. Tenure climbs steeply with age, from 3.0 years for workers ages 25 to 34 to 9.6 years for those ages 55 to 64. Management, professional and related occupations had the longest tenure of any occupation group at 4.9 years, and management occupations on their own at 6.1 years.

What this means. Fewer people around you are moving, and that cuts both ways. It means less turnover above you, so the internal opening you have been waiting on may simply not appear, and it means fewer rivals for the roles that do get posted. If you want to move, you are working against the grain of a market where staying put has become the norm, so plan on a longer search and on reaching people directly rather than waiting for listings. It also means a short stint on your record stands out more than it did two years ago, so be ready to explain one in a sentence rather than hoping nobody asks.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employee Tenure in 2026 (USDL-26-1532), released September 24, 2026, reporting data for January 2026. Tenure counts time in the current job only, so it is not a measure of total career length, and the survey runs once every two years. Source

Every two years. Refreshes September 2028

5 of 12

Federal Reserve districts where some firms cut staff through attrition, delayed hiring, or expect fewer new jobs after investing in AI.

In five of the Fed's twelve districts, employers say AI is letting them hire less

The Beige Book is the Federal Reserve's roundup of what businesses in its 12 regional districts are reporting, published eight times a year. In the October 2026 edition, five districts said some firms had reduced staffing through attrition, delayed hiring, or expected to create fewer jobs after raising productivity by investing in AI. Most districts reported little or no net change in overall employment, and shortages persisted for specialized, technical and skilled trade workers.

What this means. The first place AI shows up in hiring is usually not a layoff. It is the opening that never gets posted because a departing employee is not replaced. That means fewer listed roles, and more of the real opportunity sits in jobs being redesigned inside companies. In conversations, ask which roles a team is rebuilding around new tools, and be ready to show how you get more done with them, not just that you have tried them.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Beige Book, October 2026, released October 14, 2026, based on information collected on or before October 5, 2026. The Beige Book reports what business contacts describe. It is not a statistical survey. Source

Refreshes with the next Beige Book

4.7%

Median pay growth for people who changed jobs. People who stayed: 3.4 percent.

Changing jobs still pays more than staying, but the premium is shrinking

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta tracks the typical year-over-year change in hourly pay for the same individuals, using Census Bureau survey data. For September 2026, measured as a three-month moving average, people who had changed jobs saw median pay growth of 4.7 percent, down from 5.0 percent in August. People who stayed in the same job saw 3.4 percent, down from 3.6 percent. Overall wage growth slowed to 3.9 percent from 4.1 percent.

What this means. A move still carries a raise of more than a full percentage point over standing still, so if you are weighing an offer, the market is still paying for the switch. The gap is narrowing as overall pay growth cools, though, which means the raise alone is a weaker reason to move than it was a year or two ago. Judge an offer on scope, title and where it positions you next, and negotiate the number knowing that employers are budgeting smaller increases across the board.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wage Growth Tracker, data through September 2026, updated October 8, 2026. Figures are three-month moving averages of unweighted median hourly wage growth. Source

Refreshes November 2026

27.1%

Share of the unemployed out of work 27 weeks or more. Payrolls grew 29,000 in September.

More than one in four unemployed people have been searching longer than six months

The Bureau of Labor Statistics counts anyone jobless for 27 weeks or more, just over six months, as long-term unemployed. In September that group was 1.9 million people, or 27.1 percent of the 7.1 million unemployed. The same release put September payroll growth at 29,000 and revised the two previous months down: July from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, and August from 162,000 to 133,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent.

What this means. If your search has passed the six-month mark, you are part of a large group, not an outlier. A steady unemployment rate alongside very slow hiring describes a market where few people are being let go and few are being hired. Elapsed time is the expected cost of that market, not a verdict on you. What you can change is how many people know you are looking, because when hiring is this slow, openings tend to go to someone who was referred by a person already inside.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation, September 2026 (USDL-26-1549), released October 2, 2026. Source

Refreshes November 6, 2026