Worth Knowing

4.7%

Median pay growth for people who changed jobs. People who stayed: 3.4 percent.

Changing jobs still pays more than staying, but the premium is shrinking

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta tracks the typical year-over-year change in hourly pay for the same individuals, using Census Bureau survey data. For September 2026, measured as a three-month moving average, people who had changed jobs saw median pay growth of 4.7 percent, down from 5.0 percent in August. People who stayed in the same job saw 3.4 percent, down from 3.6 percent. Overall wage growth slowed to 3.9 percent from 4.1 percent.

What this means. A move still carries a raise of more than a full percentage point over standing still, so if you are weighing an offer, the market is still paying for the switch. The gap is narrowing as overall pay growth cools, though, which means the raise alone is a weaker reason to move than it was a year or two ago. Judge an offer on scope, title and where it positions you next, and negotiate the number knowing that employers are budgeting smaller increases across the board.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wage Growth Tracker, data through September 2026, updated October 8, 2026. Figures are three-month moving averages of unweighted median hourly wage growth. Source

Refreshes November 2026

46.1%

Expected chance of finding a new job if the current one were lost. Up 0.7 points from August.

Workers put their odds of finding a new job after a layoff at slightly worse than a coin flip

Every month the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations asks a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads how likely they think certain things are. In September, the average perceived chance of finding a new job, if the respondent lost their current one, rose to 46.1 percent, above its 12-month average of 45.5 percent. The perceived chance of losing a job in the next year fell to 13.5 percent, its lowest reading since December 2024.

What this means. Most working people believe that if their job disappeared tomorrow, they would more likely than not have trouble landing the next one quickly. Fewer expect to be laid off, but the people who do lose a job face a market where hiring is slow. If you are employed and thinking about a change, the time to build your network and your materials is before you need them, not after. If you are already looking, a search measured in months is the norm in this market, not a sign that something is wrong with you.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations, September 2026, released October 7, 2026. Figures are respondents' own expectations, not measured outcomes. Source

Refreshes early November 2026

27.1%

Share of the unemployed out of work 27 weeks or more. Payrolls grew 29,000 in September.

More than one in four unemployed people have been searching longer than six months

The Bureau of Labor Statistics counts anyone jobless for 27 weeks or more, just over six months, as long-term unemployed. In September that group was 1.9 million people, or 27.1 percent of the 7.1 million unemployed. The same release put September payroll growth at 29,000 and revised the two previous months down: July from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, and August from 162,000 to 133,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent.

What this means. If your search has passed the six-month mark, you are part of a large group, not an outlier. A steady unemployment rate alongside very slow hiring describes a market where few people are being let go and few are being hired. Elapsed time is the expected cost of that market, not a verdict on you. What you can change is how many people know you are looking, because when hiring is this slow, openings tend to go to someone who was referred by a person already inside.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation, September 2026 (USDL-26-1549), released October 2, 2026. Source

Refreshes November 6, 2026