Worth Knowing

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Federal Reserve districts where some firms cut staff through attrition, delayed hiring, or expect fewer new jobs after investing in AI.

In five of the Fed's twelve districts, employers say AI is letting them hire less

The Beige Book is the Federal Reserve's roundup of what businesses in its 12 regional districts are reporting, published eight times a year. In the October 2026 edition, five districts said some firms had reduced staffing through attrition, delayed hiring, or expected to create fewer jobs after raising productivity by investing in AI. Most districts reported little or no net change in overall employment, and shortages persisted for specialized, technical and skilled trade workers.

What this means. The first place AI shows up in hiring is usually not a layoff. It is the opening that never gets posted because a departing employee is not replaced. That means fewer listed roles, and more of the real opportunity sits in jobs being redesigned inside companies. In conversations, ask which roles a team is rebuilding around new tools, and be ready to show how you get more done with them, not just that you have tried them.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Beige Book, October 2026, released October 14, 2026, based on information collected on or before October 5, 2026. The Beige Book reports what business contacts describe. It is not a statistical survey. Source

Refreshes with the next Beige Book

-0.7%

Change in real average hourly earnings, September 2025 to September 2026, after inflation.

Paychecks are buying less than they did a year ago

Real earnings are wages adjusted for inflation, so they measure what a paycheck actually buys. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that real average hourly earnings for all employees fell 0.7 percent from September 2025 to September 2026. In September alone they fell 0.5 percent, as average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent while consumer prices rose 0.6 percent.

What this means. If your raise this year was modest, your purchasing power probably went backward. When you negotiate an offer, anchor on the market rate for the role rather than a percentage over your current pay, which inflation has already eroded. Staffing contacts in the Boston Fed district told the October Beige Book that workers were looking for new jobs because raises had lagged inflation, so you will not be the only candidate with that reason.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Real Earnings, September 2026 (USDL-26-1575), released October 14, 2026. Source

Refreshes November 10, 2026

4.7%

Median pay growth for people who changed jobs. People who stayed: 3.4 percent.

Changing jobs still pays more than staying, but the premium is shrinking

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta tracks the typical year-over-year change in hourly pay for the same individuals, using Census Bureau survey data. For September 2026, measured as a three-month moving average, people who had changed jobs saw median pay growth of 4.7 percent, down from 5.0 percent in August. People who stayed in the same job saw 3.4 percent, down from 3.6 percent. Overall wage growth slowed to 3.9 percent from 4.1 percent.

What this means. A move still carries a raise of more than a full percentage point over standing still, so if you are weighing an offer, the market is still paying for the switch. The gap is narrowing as overall pay growth cools, though, which means the raise alone is a weaker reason to move than it was a year or two ago. Judge an offer on scope, title and where it positions you next, and negotiate the number knowing that employers are budgeting smaller increases across the board.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wage Growth Tracker, data through September 2026, updated October 8, 2026. Figures are three-month moving averages of unweighted median hourly wage growth. Source

Refreshes November 2026

46.1%

Expected chance of finding a new job if the current one were lost. Up 0.7 points from August.

Workers put their odds of finding a new job after a layoff at slightly worse than a coin flip

Every month the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations asks a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads how likely they think certain things are. In September, the average perceived chance of finding a new job, if the respondent lost their current one, rose to 46.1 percent, above its 12-month average of 45.5 percent. The perceived chance of losing a job in the next year fell to 13.5 percent, its lowest reading since December 2024.

What this means. Most working people believe that if their job disappeared tomorrow, they would more likely than not have trouble landing the next one quickly. Fewer expect to be laid off, but the people who do lose a job face a market where hiring is slow. If you are employed and thinking about a change, the time to build your network and your materials is before you need them, not after. If you are already looking, a search measured in months is the norm in this market, not a sign that something is wrong with you.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations, September 2026, released October 7, 2026. Figures are respondents' own expectations, not measured outcomes. Source

Refreshes early November 2026

27.1%

Share of the unemployed out of work 27 weeks or more. Payrolls grew 29,000 in September.

More than one in four unemployed people have been searching longer than six months

The Bureau of Labor Statistics counts anyone jobless for 27 weeks or more, just over six months, as long-term unemployed. In September that group was 1.9 million people, or 27.1 percent of the 7.1 million unemployed. The same release put September payroll growth at 29,000 and revised the two previous months down: July from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, and August from 162,000 to 133,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent.

What this means. If your search has passed the six-month mark, you are part of a large group, not an outlier. A steady unemployment rate alongside very slow hiring describes a market where few people are being let go and few are being hired. Elapsed time is the expected cost of that market, not a verdict on you. What you can change is how many people know you are looking, because when hiring is this slow, openings tend to go to someone who was referred by a person already inside.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation, September 2026 (USDL-26-1549), released October 2, 2026. Source

Refreshes November 6, 2026